This piece was initially published at TIME.com

If in November 2020 we are looking back on how Donald J. Trump came to be re-elected as President of the United States, those undergoing a second round of horror and dismay will find themselves reflecting on how seriously, and how often, they underestimated their foe.

The left has history when it comes to looking down on, and therefore underrating, its opponents. Ronald Reagan was derided as a genial but bumbling movie actor but was elected twice to govern both his state and his country. As was George W. Bush, who seemed to inspire a kind of hysterical contempt in his adversaries: Haha, he’s so stupid. He says words like “misunderestimate.” Oh, he’s beaten us. Again.

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First published in the Daily Express on 24 March 2018.

WHEN the RAF was formed a century ago Edward “Mick” Mannock had already been terrorising German pilots in the skies for the best part of a year.

With his ruthless streak and hatred of the enemy, combined with his skill in the air and being a fine shot, he had built up a formidable reputation for his bravery. (more…)

Last December the voters of Alabama did something they had not done for twenty-seven years – they elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. The extraordinary result prompted some to wonder whether the political tide could be turning, even in the Republican strongholds of the South. Last week I held focus groups in two neighbouring states, Tennessee and Mississippi, to take the temperature in the region, and to assess the current mood of American voters, especially those who had put Donald Trump in the White House.

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Voters in Tennessee and Mississippi discuss Trump, Russia, North Korea, tariffs, flags, guns and Stormy Daniels, Memphis Congressman Steve Cohen predicts a ‘blue tsunami’ in November, and I interview Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant.

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The local government elections on 3 May 2018 will be the first big test of voters’ opinion since they deprived the Conservatives of their majority in parliament last June. Among the most closely watched results from the authorities across Britain will be those from the 32 London boroughs.

Ten of these are currently under Conservative control, including the party’s two local government flagships: Westminster, run by the Tories since its creation in 1965, and Wandsworth, in Tory hands since 1978, even though, during the Blair years, all three of the borough’s MPs were Labour.

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First published in the Evening Standard on Monday, 05 March 2018

Though neck and neck with Labour in national polls, the  political picture looks pretty grim for Conservatives in London. My latest research, published today, finds just a quarter of London voters, and only six in ten Tories, saying they approve of the Government’s record.

Londoners gave Mrs May an average performance score of 35 out of 100, compared to 47 for Jeremy Corbyn and 53 for Sadiq Khan, who topped our table. Some admired her stoicism, but she tended to arouse sympathy rather than anything more positive (“I’m surprised she hasn’t had a nervous breakdown,” as one of our focus group participants put it). And those were the charitable views. (more…)

First published in Britain at War in March 2018.

Acting Captain Allastair Malcolm Cluny McReady-Diarmid VC: skill

Allastair Malcolm Cluny McReady-Diarmid (as he was known as the time of his death) was born with the name of Arthur Malcolm McReady-Drew on 21 March 1888. One of four sons born to Herbert Drew, a civil servant, and his wife Fanny (née McReady), he was born in New Southgate, London. (more…)

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC has had his latest “hero of the month” article published in Britain at War, the country’s best-selling military history monthly magazine.

The March issue of the magazine has a two-page write-up on the life and bravery of Acting Captain Allastair Malcolm Cluny McReady-Diarmid, who was awarded the Victoria Cross (VC) for outstanding bravery during the Great War. (more…)

First published in Britain at War in February 2018.

Acting Captain George Henry Tatham Paton VC, MC

George Henry Tatham Paton was born in Innellan, near Dunoon, Argyllshire, on 3 October 1895. He was the only son of Sir George William Paton, who at the time was working for Messrs Ross, Corbett & Co of Greenock. George Paton Snr later became the Deputy Chairman of Bryant & May and was knighted in 1930. George Paton Snr and his wife Henrietta (née Henderson) also had a daughter. (more…)

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC has had his latest “hero of the month” article published in Britain at War, the country’s best-selling military history monthly magazine.

The February issue of the magazine has a two-page write-up on the life and bravery of Acting Captain George Henry Tatham Paton VC, MC, who was awarded the Victoria Cross (VC) for outstanding bravery during the Great War. (more…)