Our focus group tour this month took us to two destinations in Wales, to hear from longstanding Labour voters in Neath & Swansea East, and from Conservative-Labour switchers in Vale of Glamorgan. We also visited opposite corners of London: former Conservative voters who last year defected to the Lib Dems in Sutton & Cheam or to Reform in Hornchurch & Upminster. The groups discussed Keir Starmer’s record after a year, Iran, Labour’s record in Wales, the widening appeal of Reform UK, and what they wanted from the Tories.
We need somebody strong at the head of our country, but he can’t even keep control of his own party
On the domestic front, there was a feeling that Labour U-turns had become a regular political theme (“they’re doing a lot of it at the moment, aren’t they?”) – and this was before the government announced welfare reform climbdown and Keir Starmer renounced his “island of strangers” speech. The reversal over an inquiry into grooming gangs had followed the shift on the winter fuel allowance, giving some an impression of weakness and unreliability that undermined trust and Starmer’s credibility more broadly: “I don’t think he’s a strong leader. We need somebody strong at the head of our country to go head-to-head with Trump, but he can’t even keep control of his own party;” “When he backtracks on things, it doesn’t say integrity, does it? If he does it on that, what’s he going to do on other policies? When he makes hard decisions and gets challenged, he just seems to flip;” “Sometimes when there are difficult decisions, you’re not going to be a favourite person. But I feel there is a lot of popularity-vote behaviour. It matters even more than usual, because with all the military threats, if we suddenly have to kick into war, I’m not that confident the right decisions will be made.”
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