Winter fuel and migration U-turns, two-child benefit cap, who will be the next PM, and what will Rachel do?

  • 10 June, 2025
  • Politics
  • Polling

My latest poll looks at the winter fuel reversal and Labour’s new approach to immigration, the two-child benefit cap, who presents the biggest threat to Labour and expectations for the next election, as well as our regular questions on the parties and leaders. We also ask what people think Rachel Reeves should – and will – do in this week’s spending review.

What have they noticed – and who has noticed what?

US tariffs were the most noticed political story, followed by the winter fuel allowance reversal and Reform’s gains in the local elections. The debate over the two-child benefit cap, the government’s tighter immigration policy and arguments over Nigel Farage’s economic plans also registered.

Our political map shows which stories were most likely to have been noticed by which kinds of voters. We can see that stories about the Chagos Islands deal, immigration and and Keir Starmer’s speech attacked Farage and Reform were most likely to have been noticed in the less well-off, less diverse, Reform-backing bottom-right quadrant, while Attorney General Lord Hermer’s comments comparing opponents to Nazis was most likely to have registered in the more prosperous, Conservative-leaning top right. Tariffs, trade deals and Tory leadership speculation were most noticed in the better-off, more diverse, liberal-leaning top-left quadrant, while Gaza and potential disability benefit cuts were most likely to be picked up in the more diverse, less well-off bottom left. Stories about Ukraine, the two-child benefit cap, local elections and the UK-EU reset appear close to the centre of the map, showing that they were registered to varying degrees across the board.

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