Edited version of Lord Ashcroft’s presentation to the International Democracy Union in Brussels in May 2025.
Since his inauguration in January, President Trump has wasted no time implementing what supporters and opponents agree is a radical agenda, both in the United States and internationally. My latest research looks at how his second term looks so far to different parts of his voting coalition at home, and the implications for America’s relationships with her allies, especially here in Europe. It’s also worth thinking about the elements of Trump’s appeal that our parties around the world need to respond to – such as concerns about migration, the costs of pursuing net zero and the loss of cultural self-confidence – and the risk of some of these things being tainted by the way the 47th president goes about his business.
For the US perspective I have carried out a 10,000-sample poll and 12 focus groups in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, three of the decisive states last November. Further afield, I have conducted surveys in five countries across Europe – Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Estonia – to explore how both sides of the western alliance view the transatlantic relationship and the implications of the new world order.
To start with the big picture, just over half of Americans now say the country is currently heading in the wrong direction. Among those who voted for Trump in November, just over 7 in 10 – or if you prefer, only just over 7 in 10 – say things are on the right track.
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