Centenary of the death of Captain Noel Chavasse VC & Bar, MC

Friday, August 4 2017, was the centenary of the death of Captain Noel Chavasse VC & Bar MC, one of the bravest soldiers who has ever lived.

Captain Chavasse, a doctor who served with the Royal Army Medical Corps (RAMC), was the only man to be awarded the VC and Bar – the equivalent of two VCs – during the Great War.

(more…)

See the August edition of Britain at War for Lord Ashcroft’s new bravery article

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC has had his latest “hero of the month” article published in Britain at War, the country’s best-selling military history monthly magazine.

The August issue of the magazine has a two-page write-up on the life and bravery of Chief Skipper Joseph Watt, who was awarded the Victoria Cross (VC) for outstanding bravery during the Great War.

Watt, who like his father was a fisherman, volunteered for the Patrol Service in the summer of 1914 after the outbreak of the war. After duties in the North Sea, he was posted to Italy. (more…)

NEW BOOK PROJECT: LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC and ISABEL OAKESHOTT

WHITE FLAG?
An examination of Britain’s modern day defence capability

BRITAIN is at a crossroads. As we leave the EU, we face a great challenge and opportunity, to forge a new identity in an increasingly uncertain world. Our Armed Forces will be critical to our power and prosperity. (more…)

See the July edition of Britain at War for Lord Ashcroft’s new bravery article

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC has had his latest “hero of the month” article published in Britain at War, the country’s best-selling military history monthly magazine.

The July issue of the magazine has a two-page write-up on the life and bravery of Acting Captain Arthur Henderson, who was awarded the Victoria Cross (VC) for outstanding bravery during the Great War.

Henderson, who was born in Paisley, Scotland, enlisted as a private in the 4th Battalion, Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders, after the outbreak of the war in August 1914. (more…)

Estimated Conservative majority rises in final Ashcroft Model update

The final results from the Ashcroft Model shows an increase in the estimated Conservative majority compared to Tuesday’s figures. The new data is based on an updated survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, which found a hardening of the Conservative vote as Tory supporters gave a higher likelihood of turning out to vote than in previous rounds. The upshot is as follows:

  • Using voters’ self-declared likelihood to turn out, the model estimates 373 Conservative seats, or a Conservative overall majority of 96.

Read more …

Ashcroft Model update: potential majorities and seat-by-seat estimates

The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).

Read more …

Ashcroft Model update: new potential majorities and seat-by-seat estimates

This week’s estimates from the Ashcroft Model suggest a narrowing of the Conservative majority, though still a comfortable victory for Theresa May. Our “combined probabilistic estimate”, in which we take the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, the model gives the Conservatives 355 seats (down from 396 last week), or a potential majority of 60.

However, the majority could be considerably better or worse than this for the Conservatives, depending on the pattern of turnout. Our model calculates three different results, depending on who actually shows up to the polls.

Read more …

“She called the snap election and can’t be bothered turning up to it”: my final round of focus groups

The final round of my general election focus groups comes from three Labour seats in Wales: Cardiff South & Penarth, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport West, with participants who voted Labour or UKIP in 2015. As they looked back on the campaign, what had made an impression? “It’s mostly the gaffes that stand out…The lady for Labour, when she completely messed up.” “Diane Abbott.” “That’s the one. That sticks out for me.” “The pensioners getting screwed.” “Corbyn today, not knowing about childcare, and Theresa May launching her manifesto that within twelve hours had been turned round.” Few had felt inspired: “It strikes me there’s no real vision, how to take the next step. To be honest, it’s a little bit of a mess.”

Read more …

Ashcroft Election Tour podcast: Cardiff, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport

The final edition of the Ashcroft Election Tour podcast comes from three Welsh constituencies – Cardiff South & Penarth, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport West. Undecided former Labour and UKIP voters discuss campaign highlights, manifestos, policies, and the leaders as biscuits.

Listen to PodCast …

See the June edition of Britain at War for Lord Ashcroft’s new bravery article

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC has had his latest “hero of the month” article published in Britain at War, the country’s best-selling military history monthly magazine.

The June issue of the magazine has a two-page write-up on the life and bravery of Acting Lieutenant Colonel Edward Elers Delaval Henderson, who was awarded the Victoria Cross (VC) for outstanding bravery during the Great War. (more…)

Sign up for Lord Ashcroft List
Read new posts as soon as they appear on lordashcroft.com