My latest focus groups took place in two constituencies in the west country: North East Somerset and Hanham, where we heard from 2024 Conservative switchers to Labour and Reform, and Taunton, where we spoke to Tories who went to the Liberal Democrats.
The groups took place before Robert Jenrick’s defection, but many had picked up on the curtain-raiser in the shape of Nadhim Zahawi. Participants tended to see such manoeuvres as a reflection of the defector’s calculation of his own interests, rather than anything to do with principle or conviction: “I think they’re dangling the carrot because they haven’t got enough front-line experience;” “At least Rees-Mogg is like, he’s a Tory and he’ll stay a Tory, whereas other MPs seem to be like, wherever the money is.” Whether the new arrival adds to the standing of his new party depends on the circumstances: “It could give them a bit more credibility. It depends what they’ve been kicked out for.” Some Reform voters were doubtful: “I’m getting a bit concerned that Conservative members of parliament are now coming over. I don’t want it to get too watered down. I really want to know why he has come over. Is he trying to get a job?” “It’s like bees round a honey pot. It’s the shiny new party. ‘The Tories are down in the polls, so let’s go to this new lot.’ It feels a little bit like Reform is becoming the Tory Party mark two.
It feels a little bit like Reform is becoming the Tory Party mark two.
The issue at the top of many participants’ minds was that of Grok, deepfakes and social media regulation (“this bloody scares me”). The groups overwhelmingly thought social media was too lightly regulated: “I watched a thing on BBC News about glasses which can record people. I think there needs to be a lot more safety in place;” “There needs to be more regulation.
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