Biden v. Trump: Why is America heading for the rematch no-one seems to want?

  • 10 October, 2023
  • Politics
  • Polling

This is an edited version of my presentation at the E2 Summit in Utah in October 2023.

With just over a year to the next presidential election, Donald Trump has a commanding lead in Republican primary polls and Joe Biden insists he’s not going anywhere. How is it that, as things stand, the country is heading for a contest that hardly anyone seems to want? My latest research – a 20,000-sample poll together with focus groups in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and with Arizona – points us to the answer.

Overall, nearly two thirds of voters say the country is on the wrong track. Indeed, those who voted for President Biden in 2020 are more likely to say America is on the wrong

Crucially, few Americans say they are better off than they were three years ago. Biden voters are more likely to say they feel worse off since the president took office than the reverse. Most voters are also pessimistic about the outlook for the economy over the next year.

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