My latest five-thousand sample survey shows how the referendum campaign is developing, and sheds light on the competing themes of the two campaigns: Remain’s emphasis on the risks of Brexit, and Leave’s mantra ‘Vote Leave, Take Control’. Here is what we found:
1: Opinion remains divided, but the Leave vote is hardening
I asked respondents to place themselves on a sentiment scale, where zero meant they would definitely vote for Britain to remain in the EU, and one hundred meant they would definitely vote to leave. A score of fifty meant they were completely undecided; another number meant they were leaning slightly or strongly one way or the other. (This indication of sentiment should not be compared directly with standard voting intention polls which replicate the referendum question).