For the first time in more than two years, the Conservatives are ahead in a national voting intention poll. The first of my weekly telephone surveys has found a two-point Tory lead: Conservative 34%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 9%, UKIP 15%. Those who are not familiar with my research may think it is more than a coincidence that a Tory like me should produce the first Conservative lead in a national survey for more than two years. Regular readers, I hope, would point them to my previous polling and commentary, in which I have not shied away from pointing out uncomfortable truths to all parties. Indeed the lamentable practice of “comfort polling” – trying to demonstrate you are doing better than you really are – is one of the things that prompted me to start my own research in the first place.
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