Towards the end of the Republican Convention this summer the experienced campaign consultant Trygve Olsen advised us how to read the presidential race in the closing weeks. You could tell a lot from where the candidates spent their time, but also what they said: if either side says it is confident, it is too close to call; if one side claims to be enjoying a surge, it means they are going to lose.
I cannot help but remember this as I read Republican claims that Mitt Romney has the momentum in the closing days of the campaign, though the national polls are as tight as could be imagined. The RealClearPolitics average has the two candidates within one tenth of one per cent of each other, with Romney’s favourability ratings now ahead of President Obama’s.
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