Labour are set for comfortable win in the Corby & East Northamptonshire by-election, according to a poll I conducted in the days following Louise Mensch’s resignation announcement. They begin the campaign with a 15-point lead: 52% to the Conservatives’ 37%.
Such a result would represent a 9-point swing to Labour swing since 2010, when the Tories regained the seat from Phil Hope. This is comparable to the national swing implied by recent published polls, which would be easily enough for a sizeable Labour majority if translated into votes at a general election.
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