In August 2011 I conducted a poll of 41 marginal Conservative-held seats to find out whether the static national polls were hiding a more nuanced picture on this crucial battleground. The results constitute mixed news for the Conservative Party – the findings are more encouraging for Tories where the Liberal Democrats are in second place than in constituencies where Labour are the main opponents.
Methodology
13,100 telephone interviews were conducted in the following constituencies between 1-28 August 2011. 300 interviews were conducted in seats where Labour were second at the 2010 general election (‘Labour targets’); 400 where the Liberal Democrats were second (‘Lib Dem targets’). Results were weighted by to be representative of the seats selected. They were also weighted by turnout and past vote.
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