Here is the text of my presentation to the International Democracy Union in Washington DC, launching ‘Eyes Wide Open’, my research report on the 2024 presidential election.
I think we can all agree that the 2024 election was one of the most absorbing contests of our lifetime. In the month before the election we held a total of 29 focus groups with voters from all kinds of backgrounds in all seven critical states. I also conducted a poll of 20,000 Americans as they prepared to vote.
Today I’d like to talk about why things turned out as they did, and a few of the political implications that might apply in our home countries around the world.
To begin with, I want to reflect on some of the notable details of the result. These figures are taken from the broadcasters’ exit polls, which some of you may have seen but it’s worth thinking about the story they tell – and how they confound some of the narratives we often hear about Donald Trump and his supporters.
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