We don’t yet know how the attempted assassination of Donald Trump will play out politically. My latest polling from the US and shows the state of the race at the point he rose to speak on Saturday. Crucially, I found that Americans had begun to see Joe Biden’s physical and mental capacity as a bigger factor in the presidential election than Trump’s character and judgment. Despite Biden’s narrow lead in terms of national vote share, my three surveys – conducted before and after Trump’s New York convictions, and again after the pair’s head-to-head CNN debate – found growing expectations of a Trump victory.
Fitness for office
Asked which they thought was the more important factor in the presidential election – Trump’s judgment and character or Biden’s physical and mental capacity – Americans chose Biden’s capacity by 46% to 43%. The proportion of 2020 Trump voters saying his character and judgment were the bigger factor (35%) was identical to the proportion of 2020 Biden voters who said the president’s physical and mental capacity mattered more.
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