The Farage factor, faith in Labour, why are people really deserting the Tories, and is the campaign making a difference?

  • 13 June, 2024
  • Politics
  • Polling

Two thirds of 2019 Conservative voters say they like a lot of what Nigel Farage stands for and nearly half would like to see him in a senior position, according to my latest poll – though they are doubtful about his proposed “takeover” of the Conservative Party. Most think Labour will not achieve reductions in NHS waiting times or immigration numbers, and fewer than half say they have finally decided how to vote.

The campaign

The prime minister’s early departure from the D-Day ceremonies in France was the single biggest story of the week, spontaneously mentioned by 1 in 5 of our poll participants. However, the leaders’ TV debate provoked a good deal of recall: 16% mentioned the debate itself, while 23% mentioned the claim that taxes would rise by £2,000 a year under Labour – evenly split between the prospect of Labour tax rises, and the suggestion that Sunak was lying. Nigel Farage standing for parliament and having milkshake thrown over him were also among the biggest stories.

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