Below is the text of my presentation at the Conservative Party Conference this afternoon setting out my latest research in marginal seats and the Tories’ challenge in building an election-winning coalition of voters.
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Good afternoon and as the proud proprietor of Conservative Home let me add my welcome to this event which is intended to set the scene and explain the public opinion backdrop to our last party conference before the general election.
First it is time to go back to basics, as somebody once said. Since the 7th of May 2010 it has been clear that to win a majority, or probably even to remain the largest party, the Conservatives are going to need more votes at the next election than they received at the last one.
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