Ashcroft Model update: estimated vote shares by seat, and new potential majorities

This week we have added a new feature to the Ashcroft Model dashboard. The constituency-by-constituency pages now show estimated current vote shares for each seat in three different scenarios: according to turnout in the 2015 general election; including those who say they voted in the EU referendum; and including those who say they will vote in June.

Alongside these estimated vote shares, the model also shows the leading party’s “win chance” in that seat. In calculating the win chance, the model takes into account data from several previous general elections to transform the estimated gap in vote share – between the first and second-placed parties in two-way contests, or the top three in three-way contests – into probabilities.

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