Published on ConservativeHome.com on 15 September 2026.
Much has changed since we last looked at the idea of an alliance between Reform UK and the Conservatives. It was, for one thing, a whole prime minister ago (admittedly not as great a measure of political time as it once was), and the fortunes of several parties look different. Is the same true for the prospects of a united right?
A year ago, with a consistent ten-point poll lead and a divided opposition, Nigel Farage could credibly claim that he was going to win the next election and form a majority government with no help from anyone else. That lead has disappeared, and as we saw in Gorton and Denton, Caerphilly and Makerfield, the party’s opponents are willing to vote tactically to keep Reform out. This is not to say that a Reform majority government is impossible, but it is certainly not inevitable. Even if Labour’s Burnham bounce subsides, the damaging publicity around Reform’s finances is likely to endure.
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