Labour are ahead by six points in my latest general election voting intention poll, conducted over the past weekend. The survey puts Labour on 35% (up three points since last week), the Conservatives on 29% (down five), the Lib Dems unchanged on 9% and UKIP down one point at 14%. This looks like quite a reversal in the week since the inaugural Ashcroft National Poll found the first Tory lead since 2012. What is going on?
Ten general election voting intention surveys have been published between last Monday’s poll and today’s. Of those ten, two showed a Tory lead, one was a tie, and seven put Labour ahead. Baffling though this may look, it is not completely inexplicable.