Ashcroft Model update: new potential majorities and seat-by-seat estimates

This week’s estimates from the Ashcroft Model suggest a narrowing of the Conservative majority, though still a comfortable victory for Theresa May. Our “combined probabilistic estimate”, in which we take the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, the model gives the Conservatives 355 seats (down from 396 last week), or a potential majority of 60.

However, the majority could be considerably better or worse than this for the Conservatives, depending on the pattern of turnout. Our model calculates three different results, depending on who actually shows up to the polls.

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